AirJoule Technologies Corp. (AIRJ)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• AirJoule reported no revenue in 2024 and a Q4 net loss of approximately $14.3M as the JV remains in development; full-year FY 2024 net income was $215.7M driven by non‑cash items (notably a $333.5M gain on contribution of technology to the JV) .
• The company showcased a step-change in performance: AirJoule produced pure distilled water from air at under 160 Wh/L using low-grade waste heat, positioning for data center and industrial deployments; management is targeting proof‑of‑concept pilots with up to three data center operators starting in H2 2025 .
• Liquidity remained solid with $28.0M of cash and equivalents at year-end and a new $30M committed equity facility with B. Riley to provide incremental flexibility over 36 months .
• Versus Wall Street consensus for Q4 2024, EPS was a slight miss (actual −$0.11 vs −$0.10 consensus) and EBITDA missed (−$2.80M vs −$2.20M), consistent with ongoing development-stage spending and no recognized revenue; coverage remains limited (# of estimates: EPS=1) [Values retrieved from S&P Global]*.
• Near-term stock reaction catalysts include progress on data center proof‑of‑concepts, Dubai showcase upgrades, and clarity on Carrier integration timing for HVAC and data center cooling solutions .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Demonstrated sub‑160 Wh/L energetics using low‑grade waste heat; management emphasized the transformational nature of achieving “less than 160 watt-hours per liter” and its implications for waste heat-to-water and dehumidification .
• Advanced commercial path: targeting H2 2025 preproduction units capable of ~4,000 liters/day and up to three data center pilots to validate returns and catalyze commitments .
• Strengthened liquidity and strategic relationships: $28.0M year-end cash, $30M committed equity facility, and continued support from GE Vernova and Carrier; “we have sufficient cash on hand to support both our operations and those of the joint venture” .

What Went Wrong

• Continued lack of recognized revenue in 2024, with JV net income negative as development continues; CFO reiterated “there was no revenue reported in 2024” .
• Q4 loss and estimate misses reflect higher development expenses and non‑cash liability fair‑value changes tied to stock price, highlighting P&L volatility until commercial scale is reached .
• Dubai proof‑of‑concept unit currently operates above 160 Wh/L (“Gen 0/1” elements) pending upgrades; efficiency at showcase is not yet representative of sub‑160 Wh/L target .

Financial Results

Quarterly Performance (oldest → newest)

Note: Q4 EPS actual from S&P Global; limited coverage (# of estimates=1). Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Q4 vs Consensus (S&P Global)

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Annual Snapshot (oldest → newest)

Non‑GAAP/Non‑operating drivers: FY 2024 includes a $333.5M gain on contribution of technology to AirJoule LLC and fair‑value changes to earnout/subject vesting liabilities .

KPIs and Operating Indicators

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “The significance of AirJoule® separating pure water from air at less than 160 watt-hours per liter cannot be overstated. Once commercialized, this…can enable transformational solutions including waste heat to water, distributed water generation, and more energy-efficient dehumidification…” — CEO Matt Jore .
• “We expect to complete the engineering and design of our preproduction units…capable of producing between 4,000 liters of water per day…begin proof of concept pilot deployments with up to three data center operators…lead to meaningful customer commitments.” — CEO Matt Jore .
• “During the fourth quarter, AirJoule’s net expenses for the quarter was $2.8M…our business plan in 2025 remains fully funded…and [the] committed equity facility provides…additional financial flexibility.” — CFO Stephen Pang .
• “Carrier has been exemplary…these water initiatives and the data center initiatives really give us that stepping stone into that long term air conditioning, dehumidification market.” — CEO Matt Jore .

Q&A Highlights

• Data center pilots: management expects deployments in H2 2025 into 2026, collecting productivity and ROI data to translate into commitments; efficiency and integration into chiller loops framed as low‑risk next steps .
• Efficiency across humidity: AirJoule maintains strong relative performance even at lower humidity via vacuum swing compression and, with waste heat, elimination of the compressor for reliability and energetics .
• Dubai unit status: current energetics above 160 Wh/L due to earlier‑gen elements; upgrades planned to achieve improved efficiency .
• Budget clarity: JV spend guided at ~$13–$15M in 2025 with one‑time 2024 Delaware facility build costs behind them; GE Vernova may match JV capital pro rata .
• Carrier involvement: weekly collaboration; Carrier’s data center focus complements AirJoule, with a staged path from standalone water production to deeper HVAC integration .

Estimates Context

• Q4 EPS: −$0.11 vs consensus −$0.10 (miss); Revenue: $0.0 vs consensus $0.0 (in line); EBITDA: −$2.80M vs consensus −$2.20M (miss). Coverage is thin (EPS # of estimates=1; Revenue # of estimates=2), which can magnify perceived beats/misses [Values retrieved from S&P Global]*.
• FY 2024 EPS: $4.31 vs consensus $4.825, reflecting non‑cash items (gain on contribution, liability mark‑to‑market) and no recognized revenue; consensus target price $10.38 [Values retrieved from S&P Global]*.
• Implication: Street may need to recalibrate quarterly loss profiles given the spend trajectory and pre‑revenue status until pilots convert to commitments and revenue recognition.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Technology inflection: sub‑160 Wh/L demonstrated with low‑grade waste heat is a meaningful competitive advantage versus refrigerant/dehumidifier alternatives; watch for efficiency upgrades in Dubai and data center pilot results .
• Commercial path clarity: H2 2025 preproduction units (~4,000 L/day) and up to three data center pilots are pivotal milestones; updates on timing, partners, and early ROI will be stock catalysts .
• Liquidity and flexibility: $28.0M year‑end cash plus $30M committed equity facility supports 2025–2026 execution; GE Vernova may match JV capital contributions, reducing cash needs at AIRJ .
• Financials remain development‑stage: no recognized revenue in 2024; P&L volatility from non‑cash fair‑value items should be considered when interpreting EPS variability .
• Strategic partnerships: Carrier and GE Vernova engagement deepening; integration into data center cooling loops and broader HVAC markets offers multi‑year TAM expansion .
• Regional leverage: UAE office and Dubai showcase strengthen Middle East pipeline where distilled water’s value is high; data and upgrades could accelerate regional adoption .
• Trading lens: Near‑term moves likely tied to pilot announcements, efficiency validation, and clarity on commercialization timelines; medium‑term thesis hinges on converting pilots to revenue and scaling manufacturing at Newark .

S&P Global estimates disclaimer: All values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global consensus/actuals and have limited coverage.

Citations:

• Q4 2024 8-K press release and financial statements:
• Q4 2024 earnings call transcript:
• Q3 2024 8-K press release and financials:
• Q1 2024 press release (context):